Scott Quinnell, the former Wales and British and Irish Lions back row star and Cardiff 2008 Heineken Cup Final ambassador, looks ahead at the final two Rounds and the quarter-final contenders.
Everyone wants to win their group to get that home draw in the last eight as history has proved just how important it is to be playing at home in the quarters.
And in that respect Gloucester are in the pound seats as they are the only club to have won four from four. But even those sides already knocked out of the quarter-final qualification running can have huge influences on the final outcome of Pool winners.
The one thing the Heineken Cup has proved time and time again is that you simply cannot take anything for granted this is the competition where the unexpected frequently happens.
POOL 1
It is going to take two more wins to top the group and I expect London Irish to beat the Dragons, then win against Benetton Treviso in Italy and go through as winners. And even though Trevisos magnificent victory at the Dragons means they will have their tails up I think that, if they continue in the form they have shown, the Exiles will edge out Perpignan for top spot but with both going through as qualifiers.
POOL 2
The bottom line for the Ospreys, home to Gloucester, is that this is their must win game. Anything less than a four-pointer and their European dreams are over for another year and, while the Heineken Cup regularly throws up any number of massive games during the group stages, this really is up there with the biggest.
Ever since the Ospreys could and should have won in Gloucester and yet come away without even a bonus point all the signposts in this group have pointed to this Round 5 showdown as being one of the must see games of the entire tournament.
Gloucester have not only gone through unbeaten but they have done so playing some truly magnificent rugby. They are not top of the Guinness Premiership by chance they are there strictly by right and now the challenge for the Ospreys is to put two big back-to-back performances together against Gloucester and then Bourgoin to try and get out of the Pool. I certainly believe that, at their best, they have the ability and are capable of doing just that and if they can bank another nine points they will be in business.
POOL 3
If you looked at this Pool at the start of the tournament you would probably have had Stade Français Paris sitting comfortably on top at this stage but Cardiff Blues were superb at home to Stade and now it is all in the Blues hands.
First and foremost, coach Dai Young must look to win both remaining games against Harlequins and Bristol and not get distracted by chasing bonus points. Do that and it can all backfire on you.
Of course they need to beat Harlequins first but it could be a case of winner takes all when they go across the border to meet Bristol in Round 6.
POOL 4
Biarritz Olympique have, once again, failed to turn up and been hugely disappointing and now Saracens have a wonderful opportunity of qualifying for the quarter-finals for the first time.
If they beat Biarritz they are almost there and this really is the big one for them and their chance to make a statement in Europe. However, Glasgow are still in there and they could get five points in Viadana and then go on and grind out a home win against Saracens.
POOL 5
Ah, the Pool of Death I can still see the look on the face of Geech (Ian McGeechan) as his champions London Wasps were drawn against Munster, ASM Clermont Auvergne and Llanelli Scarlets.
Both games in Pool 5 are massive. Wasps are looking very organised and well capable of going on provided they can get out of the group while the Scarlets do not have a great record at High Wycombe.
Munster have to go to Clermont next but they have built up a deserved reputation of being able to go to France and win when it matters though on the flip side Clermont can keep themselves alive in group by winning at home. It all points to this one going right down to the wire when Munster and Wasps clash at Thomond Park in Round 6.
POOL 6
Toulouse may have one foot in the quarter-final door but I can see Leinster turning them over in Dublin to keep Pool 6 very much alive. Leinster, much like Toulouse, love to play an expansive game and being home will be vital to them, as it will be for Edinburgh against Leicester Tigers.
No-one likes going to Murrayfield and two of the biggest guns of European rugby certainly face tough away tasks. Edinburgh are one of those sides who can have a big take on final placings and, if Leinster beat Toulouse and Edinburgh beat Leicester, then we are for one hell of a Round 6.
BEST RUNNERS-UP
The format of the two best runners-up qualifying for the quarter-finals as the No 7 and No 8 ranked teams has been in operation since the 1999 / 2000 season with bonus points coming into the equation in season 2003 / 2004.
Since then, no team has qualified as a best runner up with less than 19 points although in 2006 / 2007 the Ospreys both discovered that even 20 points was not sufficient to make the knock-out stages.
HOW THEY QUALIFY FOR THE QUARTER-FINALS
POOL MATCHES
Four points for a win, two points for a draw (match points). A bonus point will be earned by a team scoring four or more tries and by a team losing by seven or less points. The six Pool winners and two best placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided by the following criteria:
(i) the Pool winner will be the Club with the highest number of match points earned in each Pool. The runners-up will be the two second placed Clubs from all six Pools with the next highest number of points. For the quarter-final round, the Pool winners will be ranked 1 - 6 in terms of the number of points earned. The runners-up will be ranked 7 and 8.
CLUBS IN THE SAME POOL
(ii) if two or more Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the matches played between the Clubs concerned:
(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the matches
(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the matches
(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the matches
CLUBS FROM DIFFERENT POOLS
(iii) if still unresolved, or the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool stage, qualification / ranking will be based on:
(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and / or suspended in all Pool
matches
(d) toss of a coin
AND QUARTER-FINAL CRUNCH TIME
The race for quarter-final qualification is entering the home straight with the majority of the coveted eight places set to go all the way to the completion of Round 6 matches. The exception is in Pool 2 where a straight forward away win over the Ospreys would guarantee Gloucester Rugby quarter-final qualification but not all important ranking with home advantage going to the best four Pool winners.
And treble champions Toulouse are well and truly in the Pool 6 driving seat, five points clear of former double champions Leicester Tigers with Leinster still in the mix a further point adrift and enjoying home advantage in Dublin in Round 5 against the leaders.
HOW THEY STAND
Since the format of the two best runners-up qualifying for the quarter-finals as the No 7 and No 8 ranked teams has been in operation since the 1999 / 2000 season and bonus points coming into the equation in season 2003 / 2004, here are some quarter-final qualification pointers:
No team has qualified as Pool winners on less than four wins.
No team has qualified as one of the best runners-up on less than four wins.
Since bonus points were introduced no team has qualified as a Pool winner on less than 18 points (Stade Français Paris in 2003 / 2004).
Since bonus points were introduced no team has qualified as one of the best runners-up on less than 19 points (Leicester Tigers in 2004 / 2005)
POOL 1
Maximum points and wins attainable:
London Irish 24 points / 5 wins
Perpignan 23 points / 5 wins
Newport Gwent Dragons 17 points / 3 wins
Benetton Treviso 15 points / 3 wins
POOL 2
Maximum points and wins attainable:
Gloucester Rugby 29 points / 6 wins
Ospreys 23 points / 5 wins
Bourgoin 15 points / 3 wins
Ulster Rugby 11 points / 2 wins
POOL 3
Maximum points and wins attainable:
Bristol Rugby 22 / 5 wins
Cardiff Blues 22 points / 4 wins (and a draw)
Stade Français Paris 19 points / 4 wins
Harlequins 12 points / 2 wins (and a draw)
POOL 4
Maximum points and wins attainable:
Saracens 25 points / 5 wins
Biarritz Olympique 23 points / 5 wins
Glasgow Warriors 21 points / 4 wins
Viadana 12 points / 2 wins
POOL 5
Maximum points and wins attainable:
Munster 24 points / 5 wins
London Wasps 23 points / 5 wins
ASM Clermont Auvergne 20 points / 4 wins
Llanelli Scarlets 10 points / 2 wins
POOL 6
Maximum points and wins attainable:
Toulouse 24 points / 5 wins
Leicester Tigers 19 points / 4 wins
Leinster 18 points / 4 wins
Edinburgh 15 points / 3 wins
POOL 3 - WHO HAS DONE WHAT SO FAR
Bristol Rugby (Guinness Premiership - 9th)
GP Round 1 L Bristol Rugby 13-26 Leicester
GP Round 2 L Sale 20-6 Bristol Rugby
GP Round 3 W Bristol Rugby 14-11 London Irish
GP Round 4 L Harlequins 24-18 Bristol Rugby
GP Round 5 W Bristol Rugby 23-16 Newcastle
GP Round 6 W Bristol Rugby 39-13 Leeds
EDF Round 1 W Bristol Rugby 18-11 Scarlets
EDF Round 2 L Saracens 45-15 Bristol Rugby
HC Round 1 L Cardiff Blues 34-18 Bristol Rugby
HC Round 2 W Bristol Rugby 17-0 Stade Francais
GP Round 7 L Bath 28-13 Bristol Rugby
EDF Round 3 D Bristol Rugby 13-13 Leeds
HC Round 3 W Harlequins 3-17 Bristol Rugby
HC Round 4 W Bristol Rugby 20-7 Harlequins
GP Round 8 D Bristol Rugby 23-23 London Wasps
GP Round 9 L Gloucester 27-0 Bristol Rugby
GP Round 10 W Bristol Rugby 18-3 Saracens
Harlequins (Guinness Premiership - 6th)
GP Round 1 W Harlequins 35-27 London Irish
GP Round 2 W Harlequins 39-15 Leeds
GP Round 3 L Newcastle 19-12 Harlequins
GP Round 4 W Harlequins 24-18 Bristol
GP Round 5 L Bath 25-10 Harlequins
GP Round 6 W Harlequins 26-25 London Wasps
EDF Round 1 W London Irish 8-10 Harlequins
EDF Round 2 L Harlequins 22-23 Worcester
HC Round 1 L Stade Francais 37-17 Harlequins
HC Round 2 D Harlequins 13-13 Cardiff Blues
GP Round 7 L Gloucester 27-25 Harlequins
EDF Round 3 L Harlequins 8-19 Ospreys
HC Round 3 L Harlequins 3-17 Bristol Rugby
HC Round 4 L Bristol Rugby 20-7 Harlequins
GP Round 8 L Harlequins 20-27 Saracens
GP Round 9 W Worcester 7-10 Harlequins
GP Round 10 L Harlequins 13-42 Leicester
Cardiff Blues (Magners League - 2nd)
ML Round 1 W Cardiff Blues 17-15 Ospreys
ML Round 2 W N G Dragons 13-40 Cardiff Blues
ML Round 3 W Cardiff Blues 32-16 Glasgow
ML Round 4 L Cardiff Blues 19-30 Leinster
ML Round 5 W Munster 17-19 Cardiff Blues
ML Round 6 W Cardiff Blues 30-16 Connacht
EDF Round 1 W Cardiff Blues 32-15 Sale
EDF Round 2 L Leicester 42-20 Cardiff Blues
HC Round 1 W Cardiff Blues 34-18 Bristol Rugby
HC Round 2 D Harlequins 13-13 Cardiff Blues
ML Round 6 L Glasgow 17-5 Cardiff Blues
EDF Round 3 W Bath 6-14 Cardiff Blues
HC Round 3 L Stade Français 12-6 Cardiff Blues
HC Round 4 W Cardiff Blues 31-21 Stade Français
ML Round 7 W Cardiff Blues 11-6 N G Dragons
ML Round 8 L Ospreys 22-3 Cardiff Blues
ML Round 9 L Cardiff Blues 10-11 Edinburgh